Trading the NZD rate decision


Last week I was focused mainly on the NZD pairs.

Despite the common opinion out there that the NZD was about to climb higher, I was more focused on bearish opportunities and it turned out to be the right decision.

Higher time frame analysis and few more technical signs that I’ve picked from several charts led me to think that NZD was about to get hit.

I shared my opinion and the technical reasons with my members and.. I’m glad to say that all of my setups turned profitable after the rate decision.

NZDUSD’s false breakout

One of the reasons that everyone were focused on bullish NZD trades was the False Breakout that NZDUSD created when it climbed above the top of a trading channel:

NZDUSD analysis

As you can see, NZDUSD climbed above 0.725 and closed above the top of a  daily trading channel.

Following the breakout, the price continued to consolidate below a structure resistance zone for about two weeks.

Most of the traders that I’ve talked with (or read their opinions) saw that as a pause before the bullish breakout.

I, on the other hand, saw the consolidation below resistance as a potential bearish opportunity. Short term bearish opportunity.

In this case, I was right.


But NZDUSD wasn’t the reason I was focused on counter NZD trades… The reasons came from the Crosses:

elite zone winner

elite zone winner

The charts above are just examples of NZD pairs that formed bearish setups.

Pairs like NZDCAD, AUDNZD and NZDCHF were facing weekly and daily resistance zones that I just couldn’t ignore.

The setups I got in these pairs were screaming short NZD.

So despite NZDUSD’s breakout I decided to wait for the right timing to short NZD and the time came when RBNZ published their rate decision.

Despite Unchanged Rate, NZD got hit and crashed.

The technicals won again.


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